St. Petersburg, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

781
FXUS62 KTBW 051210
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing rain chances through midweek.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

- Moderate to extreme drought conditions continue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Quiet morning across the area with southeast low level flow
beginning to transport some more moisture northward. The flow will
become more southerly during the day and eventually southwest
across the Nature Coast as the ridge axis becomes suppressed
southward. Daytime heating will combine with the increasing
moisture and sea breeze to allow scattered convection this
afternoon and evening with highest coverage in our area from the
central interior south into inland southwest Florida. Can rule out
a shower back closer to the coast, but with the sea breeze moving
in from around Tampa Bay southward and the flow along the Nature
Coast becoming southwesterly the overall coverage looks low.
Convection will wind down this evening with partly cloudy skies
overnight. Overall the current forecast looks good with no
adjustments needed.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible for a few hours this
morning as daytime heating gets underway, then MVFR/local IFR
conditions will be possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. This convection is expected to mainly
affect LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW,as the sea breeze will push inland
during the afternoon. East to southeast winds will increase to
near 10 knots this morning then become more southeast to south
early this afternoon, except shifting to westerly near the coast
as the sea breeze moves inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of
moisture extending from the eastern Great Lakes through the
western Gulf Coast associated with an approaching cold front,
while the subtropical ridge is evident in the drier airmass
northeast of Florida. As the front approaches Florida today,
southerly low level flow will allow moisture to build across the
Florida Peninsula. This will result in significantly higher rain
chances than the previous couple of days, with scattered showers
and storms forecast over southwest Florida and interior west
central Florida. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to run well
above normal, with near record high temperatures possible once
again this afternoon.

The cold front will push into the Nature Coast Monday morning, and
clear the rest of the forecast area by Monday evening, bringing
scattered to widespread showers and storms. While the main upper
level trough pulls away, a series of shortwaves will stream across
Florida through mid to late week, leaving a band of increased
moisture and unsettled weather continuing through Thursday.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected each day
with 5-day QPF totals ranging from around 1 inch to 4 inches, with
the highest totals forecast over the interior and parts of
southwest Florida. Temperatures will drop noticeably behind the
front, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the low 70s
to around 80. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions behind the front
Tuesday through Thursday as a robust surface ridge builds in
north of Florida and keeps a tight pressure gradient in place.

Friday and Saturday, the surface ridge will gradually spread south
towards the forecast area, allowing wind speeds to subside and
drier air to fill back in and lower rain chances. Temperatures
will warm back up to near to slightly above normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

East and southeast winds less than headline criteria will persist
today as high pressure continues to ridge into the coastal waters
from the Atlantic. Winds will turn to northerly on Monday and
increase to exercise caution levels during the afternoon as a cold
front pushes into the area. High pressure building in north of
the front will keep a tight pressure gradient in place through the
rest of the week, with northeast flow increasing to advisory
levels Tuesday and remaining elevated through at least Thursday
evening. Thunderstorms also increase ahead of the front on Monday,
with elevated rain and thunderstorm chances holding through
Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Humidity increases today and Monday, with no Red Flag concerns.
Thunderstorm chances also increase today and Monday ahead of a
cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  68  85  66 /  30  10  50  60
FMY  88  68  86  67 /  50  30  60  60
GIF  88  67  86  66 /  60  30  80  70
SRQ  85  68  84  66 /  30  10  50  60
BKV  87  62  85  61 /  20  10  60  70
SPG  87  71  86  68 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Fleming